Reading Nate Silver's book, SIGNAL TO NOISE, and wondering about the value of expert knowledge...

When you read pop-nonfic books about, well, how to do things, there seems to be a divide between people who believe that human expertise and intuition is worthwhile, and people who believe that human expertise and intuition introduce more errors than they resolve.

In the latter camp, you have someone like Daniel Kahneman, who includes a startling chapter…